What is a Predictable Sermon?
Predictability is foreseeing an expected outcome. In the case of a sermon, it becomes predictable when listeners can generally foresee what the preacher is going to say. It may be due to the sermon’s obvious content. Or it may be because the sermon is not only about a well-known Bible subject or text, it is also approached in a rather usual or common way. Or it may be because the preacher has already disclosed the sermon’s main point or points very early in his presentation. All the above scenarios make the sermon predictable.
An example of a predictable sermon comes from the fairly common sermon structure that goes like this:
- Introduction: Tell the listeners what you are going to say
- Body: Tell them in a more detailed way what you told them you are going to say (elaboration)
- Conclusion: Tell them what you just said (summary)
The above structure might be good for teaching—but not for preaching. In the main, teaching is to provide information and understanding about a biblical subject or text. Hence, the above structure is useful to give clarity to the student about what is going to be taught, what is being taught, and what has been taught. This is not to say that preaching does not provide understanding about a biblical subject or text, but the understanding is meant to inspire, encourage, challenge, and change the listener. A sermon must engage both the mind and heart of the listener. Thus, creating and maintaining the interest of the listener is critical.
What’s the Problem with a Predictable Sermon? 
The problem with a predictable sermon is that it takes away the listeners’ sense of anticipation for what the preacher has to say (because they already know what he’s going to say). There isn’t a “wait for it…,” intrigue, or a surprise element. When there is little or no sense of anticipation, there will be little or no interest to listen to the sermon.
If a listener is quite well acquainted with the subject matter or has little or no immediate interest in the subject matter, the preacher would have already lost him by the end of the introduction. It is likely that the listener will only wake up when the preacher tells a story, gives an illustration, or cracks a joke! The sermon as a whole does not hold the listener’s attention (that is, interest) because he (or she) is not given any reason to listen with any sense of anticipation.
I believe it is important for every preacher to ask, as he (or she) prepares his sermon, if what he’s going to say next in the flow of his sermon, predictable?
How to Break Predictability in the Sermon?
If predictability is unhelpful to create and maintain listener-interest, then, a preacher must find ways to move away or break the listener’s sense of sermon-predictability. A good starting point is to stop using the sermon structure cited at the beginning of this article. Instead develop sermon structures that do not give away the main thrust of the sermon (namely, the message) until much 
later. That is to say, there is a “wait for it” element in the movement of the sermon. Some teachers of homiletics have called this movement, “tension and resolution.”
It can be easily seen that predictability is broken and interest is created when a sermon contains a tension to be resolved, a mystery to be uncovered, or a question to be answered. To maintain listener-interest, the resolution should not come too soon. The first part of the sermon should be given toward building up the tension. And the later part of the sermon, to the resolution of the tension. It is even possible to have the resolution right at the end—as the key message of the sermon.
To be sure, the tension, the mystery, the question nor the resolution are plucked from the air; they arise from the Bible text that the preacher is speaking from. In other words, Bible-centred preaching is not compromised in any way.
I believe that if a preacher wants to create and maintain listener-interest, his sermon cannot afford to be predictable. His sermon structure and presentation must be such that it causes his listeners to lean in with an anticipation of discovery.
This is not what I learn in Homiletics. Sermons without points meanders and become draggy an boring. Sermons that try to create tension and resolution take up more than 30 mins. Sunday Sermons to a congregation of young ppl need good graphics, clear points and practical takeaways. My sermon contain key bible verses, 3 or 4 points, images to capture attention on ppt and keep young ppl attentive. Simple use of language. Summaries are essentials for praying and challenges in the end. You can view my ppt sermons on my blog below
Hi Ruth, thank you for your comments. What I’m advocating should not lead to draggy and meandering sermons. When a preacher is focussed on the main message he (or she) cuts out everything that distracts or does not add to or lead to the main message. But he takes time to develop the sermon to draw listeners into a journey of discovery and then brings them to the divine aha!
Nonetheless, I’m glad you’ve found a homiletical style that suits you and is effective for you. Blessings.
Brilliant and timely. This challenges us to move from merely informing to truly transforming. Predictable sermons may deliver truth, but unpredictable ones awaken hunger. Effective communication is 20% what you know and 80% how you feel about what you know. When our preaching carries tension, mystery, and movement—it doesn’t just instruct minds, it arrests hearts. Thank you for this vital reminder to keep our listeners leaning in with anticipation, not leaning back with assumptions.
Hi Winston, thank you for your comments. I like your last line!
Like your idea of non-predictable sermon and tension – resolution structure to create anticipation of listeners. A good reminder for me. Thanks!
Hi Jessen, thank you for your comment.
I like the idea of building up the tension and the eventual resolution . Keeping the suspense till the end. That is how story tellers and movie plots keep the audience hooked till the end . Jesus himself was a master story teller. He kept the woman at the well hooked until finally revealing himself as the Messiah, the source living water that one would never thirst again . The outcome is life changing ie transformative .
Hi Nehemiah, thank you for your comment. I agree. While a sermon is not a story, a sermon can include many of the elements of story-telling to keep the sermon moving forward, provide tension, create interest, and lead listeners to the divine aha! Light bulbs turn on and hearts impacted.
How does what you said reconcile with what Apostle Paul said in1 Corinthians 2:4-5 and my speech and my message were not in plausible words of wisdom, but in demonstration of the Spirit and of power, so that your faith might not rest in the wisdom of men but in the power of God.?
Hi Thean Peng, thank you for your comment. I’m not sure in what sense you think that what I’m advocating is in conflict with 1 Cor 2:4-5. I prefer not to guess. Honestly, I do not see any conflict. If you like to elaborate, I’m happy to think about it.
Thank you Rev Soon Hock for reminding us that Bible centred preaching must not be compromised at all times
Teik Lim, thank you for your comment.
This is quite an interesting concept. I totally agree with you on the problem.
However, the matter of structure can be quite challenging for some people who prepare sermons and preach every week. Old dog and new tricks problem.
As a listener being accustomed to such preaching in the format that you have mentioned, I might question whether did I actually just hear a sermon, if the person used some creative format.
Notwithstanding, the listener-interest is spot on! The unpredictability comes when “I did not know the preacher knows me”, in another way “I did not know God cared about me”. He has spoken to me, I must respond.
YY, Thank you for your comment.
Change is always difficult. But I believe that preachers need to constantly develop their quality of preaching. Sometimes that means modifying or changing their style of presentation. Old dogs can learn new tricks. When I review how I preached over the years from the time I started preaching to the present, I can clearly see significant changes; which I believe has been for the better–for me and for the congregation.
I’m less concerned about the format than I am about communication. First of all I don’t believe that there is a definitive format for a sermon. I do believe that there are not so good and better formats to communicate an impactful sermon. My article is about the latter.